[AI & Actuary] Mortaility Forecasting Using Data Augmentation - CSA 2022 International Conference

 

Presented by Kyusuh Park at CSA 2022 International Conference

 

Mortality Forecasting Using Data Augmentation

Kyusuh Park 1

 

1 KS Accounting and Actuarial Consulting Co., Ltd.

 

Abstract. Recent mortality forecasting studies using artificial neural networks (ANNs) have shown improved forecasting performance compared with previous studies, where annual mortality rates were used. The use of annual mortality rates data leads to a problem in that the data are insufficient. Therefore, in this study, mortality rates were forecast by applying the related time series data augmentation methods with an ANN, unlike in existing related studies. The experimental results showed that ANNs with augmented data have improved mortality forecasting performance compared to the case without data augmentation.

 

Keywords: Data Augmentation, Mortality Forecasting, Artificial Neural Networks, Lee-Carter Model, LSTM, Time Series Data

 

Mortality_Forecasting_Using_Data_Augmentation_Kyusuh Park (2022 CSA).pdf

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